Last year at HOA Atlanta, Findlay's vocals absolutely blew me away. Their ballad actually made me cry. I can't even put it into words. I haven't seen them yet this year, but based on how they've placed so far compared to last year, I'd say it's probably going to be a close one between them and Homewood. But there are so many other incredible groups this year (and I was one of Findlay's hosts in Atlanta, so there may be some bias in my prediction), so I can't say for sure. I can't wait to see the outcome. Best of luck to everyone!!
Based on averages this is what it looks like it could be for mixed:
1st - Homewood
2nd - Findlay/Fairfield
3rd - Findlay/Fairfield
4th - Daniel Hand
5th - Noblesville / North Central
6th - Noblesville / North Central
Prediction: it will be in Indianapolis North Central High School sweep, the North Central "Counterpoints" mixed choir and the North Central "Descants" Single-Gender choir will both be grand champions!
Trying to think about what I predict will happen at this comp and really having a tough time... As Jeff mentioned before, naming the 6 favorites at this comp seems to be a more difficult task than most comps, even the stacked HOA Orlando that'll be going on at the same time! It largely comes down to the fact that you can't really look at most of these groups head to head because of the geographic separation, and while I get that this is always the case with Nationals, something about this year feels different.
For example -- CR Kennedy and CR Washington have faced each other twice this year. The first time, CR Washington got second and CR Kennedy got fifth. The second time, the exact opposite happened, with CR Kennedy taking second and CR Washington in fifth. There are a million things that could've accounted for this, but nonetheless, it happened.
A lot of these groups feel pretty similar, which it makes it incredibly tough to say who moves on.
You throw in groups like Daniel Hand, Carlsbad, Homewood and Pearl River Central that these groups almost never see, and you've got a pretty tough-to-predict competition.
That being said, I'm going to try. But I'm not even going to act like I'm capable of guessing final rankings, so I'll try it this way:
Groups I think will be finalists: Westside, Fairfield, Findlay, Homewood, North Central, Noblesville
Groups I don't feel right about leaving out of that list: Daniel Hand, Cedar Rapids Washington, Cedar Rapids Kennedy, Homestead
Theres about a 0.5% chance those predictions are right. But hey, what I do know, we're in for some sweet show choir.
If you go by the show choir rankings and stats from last year (topic for another day), this is what the “favorites” would look like, if memory serves me well:
GC - Westside (BC)
1RU - Homewood (BV)
2RU - Fairfield
3RU - Findlay
4RU - North Central
5RU - Daniel Hand
I wish we could go based off of last year's results but new year new groups. I do like the thought put into this. All the groups there this year have their own thing that sets them a part and it'll be based off of what the judges like. All them have very different shows.
Looking at this year's records, there are a couple of different results that I've come up with:
Raw Rankings, like the rank system that has been debated constantly:
1 - Homewood
2 - Daniel Hand
3 - Noblesville
4 - Findlay
5 - Fairfield
6 - Homestead
Adjusted Record Total, gives points for wins, sweeps, win over strong groups (x2), loss to a strong group (1/2 point):
1 - Findlay
2 - Homewood
3 - Fairfield
4 - Westside
5 - Noblesville
6 - Daniel Hand
Yep. Westside is getting overlooked. I think Ohio kids don't realize who they are, mistake. They will come in and outsing you bet on it. Home wood and North Central vocally strong as usual this year. Findlay, very similar show every year as far as flow and content, predictable but stable. Vocally ok. Daniel hand I have not seen this year yet. Interesting show last year. Fairfield has lots of show but less of the choir this year- likely director change issues, lost best vocals to Ross earlier this year. Two of the judges favor classic show choir. Should be interesting.
I’d just like to state as the director of Fairfield, this is not how we feel. We do recognize the other groups and have had many discussions about how great they are. We think these groups have great shows and are looking forward to seeing everyone and the amazing talents that will be there. I personally think Findlay has great vocals and said so when I saw them in January. Daniel Hand is amazing, I’ve competed against them for years. If other choirs out-sing us, then great. It’s a competition, not a war. I’m cheering everyone on. It’s going to be an exciting weekend!
Amen to that! I guess it slips the mind of some people, but any good choral program recognizes everyone they’re competing with! No one gets slept on, and that’s why groups like Fairfield are so successful.
Show Choir Nationals 2018
