I have drifted towards making my predictions a little bit differently over the years. Focusing more on pathways to victory and likelihoods, as well as the contexts surrounding what a win would look like for particular groups. Here's my pre-season breakdown:
Linn-Mar (Sweep) - I think LM will take this competition. At the very least, they are the group to beat here. I'm just gonna lay out some recent stats. Since the 2022 season: 13 Choreography Captions, 11 Vocal Captions, and of course they hold the second longest current streak in the nation at 14 (If I counted correctly). Impeccable sound and some of the most innovative choreography you're likely to see are reasons the prediction tool has this group at 1, although barely. That said, I would not be surprised to see them sweep here, even if it's narrow. It was incredible how well put together their show was last January at the Ankeny competition so early in the season. Visually (selfishly), I can not wait to see what these students do with their listed choreographers (April, Lexi, and Brax).
Carmel - again... It's hard to deny the nationwide renown results of Carmel's varsity group. Reigning in from Indiana as one of the big 3 Indy groups, Carmel is predicted to take 1RU here with vocals as of the writing of this comment. While LM is putting their streak on the line, a loss here for Carmel would be the first time not placing in the top spot post-COVID, except for their 2 1st RU placements vs CG. That's 13/15 GC's.
Brandon - Oh, Brandon... what can I say that I haven't already said ad nauseam on my podcast? One of the fastest-growing show choirs nationwide, with a hot streak that has only recently cooled off, according to some. Despite that, they have an extremely ambitious competitive schedule ahead of them with a 3 out of state competitions including this one. Brandon is sitting comfortably in 3rd for the predictions tool with 100+ responses, which speaks to the nature of what they have accomplished. Over the past couple of years, they've managed to draw blood from 2/3 of the Indy Titans, grabbing Choreography/Show Design each time.
Wheaton North - This is where the prediction tool differs from my interpretation of past results. Historically, WN has placed over MTZ more times than not, but I feel like at this point in the predictions, we start hitting a lot of the fog of where groups can end up. I wouldn't be surprised to see WN move up the list, but I have no justification for assuming they'd place over Brandon.
MTZ - Again, another major hole in my prediction logic. This group has never lost to Brandon. If you use the "compare" tool (shoutout Haakon). However, I have them lower than a group that lost to Brandon last year. My added context answer to this conundrum is that firstly, welcome to show choir, where these things are not as cut and dry as one would think, and also, MTZ could absolutely place as high as 3rd.
Millard Inf - I have Millard Infinity North here, but honestly, I do not know much about them or several other groups that I think could take this spot from them. This is me popping from the hip with a canon and zero expectation of accuracy.
We can't know what will happen until some of these groups hit the ground running with competitions in January. My most straightforward prediction is that we'll all be in for some of the highest-quality show choirs in some time.
LARGE MIXED
GC: Linn-Mar (SWEEP)
1RU: Carmel
2RU: Brandon
3RU: Mt. Zion
4RU: Wheaton North
Linn-Mar is a safe bet for GC with choreo, but I think they will sweep. Can Brandon beat Carmel? Yes. Will they... I don't wanna think about it right now. Mt. Zion also exists and could be amazing. Wheaton North has all the potential in the world to have a GC level show, but just hasn't lived up to that potential in the past couple of years.
TREBLE
GC: Carmel (BV)
1RU: Mt. Zion (BC)
2RU: Brandon
Accents are cracked. Les Femmes and Bellas are a toss up for me, but my gut tells me Les Femmes. Bellas can prove me wrong though, and I hope they do ;)
All that being said, this is way too early to be posting.
There was a VERY pre-season rumor going around the south that Linn-Mar was going to be at Millard West. Clearly that has been debunked lol. We got excited and spoke before knowing for sure Regardless, this will be a very good comp.
I was driving in the Chesterton area this weekend, and I couldn't help but stop and see what the school looked like. (show choir nerd) BIG and BEAUTIFUL! Everyone is going to have a great time!
I'm thinking Carmel is the favorite here. They (a long with a few other groups here) are some of the best dancers in the nation, but also have those glorious Indy vocals. Either way, it's going to be close! Kudos to all these groups for throwing their hat into the ring. Iron sharpens iron!
Looking at who is judging tier I, I’m inclined to agree with you here. For vocals, I think it’s Carmel’s to lose. Choreo is a tossup between Linn Mar and Carmel, but I think Carmel has a slight edge.
I would definitely say that Carmel may feel like the "home team", but so might Wheaton North, and I have seen that support provide boosts to groups at many competitions. I have learned my lesson over the years to not count Linn-Mar out. Trent and Lexi always come up with special shows! Mt Zion can dance the house down and can never be counted out. Brandon has been fantastic recently, and I only see that program growing. Millard North has been a part of the big Omaha-area charge in the show choir scene.
It's literally impossible to predict at this point in the year, and I can't imagine getting it right in January or February, either!
I'm feeling Linn-Mar will steal down GC here, considering their past history in many comps and SCN 2 years ago, as I was told that this would be really close with SCN. Linn-Mar does definitely have their chances, but as others said other great show choirs do exist and it is going to be really tough.
My predictions:
Adv. Mixed
GC - Linn-Mar 10th Street Edition (V,C)
1R - Carmel
2R - Brandon
3R - Mt. Zion
4R - Wheaton N
Very early predictions which will likely change 20 times between now and Feb 15.
GC: Linn-Mar (BC)
1RU: Carmel (BV)
2RU: Brandon
3RU: Wheaton North
4RU: Mt. Zion
I could see the top 2 go either way with either sweeping or either caption split. I also wouldnt be surprised if Brandon snatched Choreo. Wheaton and MtZ are also a huge tossup, and I wouldnt be surprised to see Millard North make finals here if they keep up their momentum from last year. Overall, looking at this lineup it might be safe to call Chesterton a national level comp now.
Regardless, this will be a very good comp.
Linn-Mar (Sweep) - I think LM will take this competition. At the very least, they are the group to beat here. I'm just gonna lay out some recent stats. Since the 2022 season: 13 Choreography Captions, 11 Vocal Captions, and of course they hold the second longest current streak in the nation at 14 (If I counted correctly). Impeccable sound and some of the most innovative choreography you're likely to see are reasons the prediction tool has this group at 1, although barely. That said, I would not be surprised to see them sweep here, even if it's narrow. It was incredible how well put together their show was last January at the Ankeny competition so early in the season. Visually (selfishly), I can not wait to see what these students do with their listed choreographers (April, Lexi, and Brax).
Carmel - again... It's hard to deny the nationwide renown results of Carmel's varsity group. Reigning in from Indiana as one of the big 3 Indy groups, Carmel is predicted to take 1RU here with vocals as of the writing of this comment. While LM is putting their streak on the line, a loss here for Carmel would be the first time not placing in the top spot post-COVID, except for their 2 1st RU placements vs CG. That's 13/15 GC's.
Brandon - Oh, Brandon... what can I say that I haven't already said ad nauseam on my podcast? One of the fastest-growing show choirs nationwide, with a hot streak that has only recently cooled off, according to some. Despite that, they have an extremely ambitious competitive schedule ahead of them with a 3 out of state competitions including this one. Brandon is sitting comfortably in 3rd for the predictions tool with 100+ responses, which speaks to the nature of what they have accomplished. Over the past couple of years, they've managed to draw blood from 2/3 of the Indy Titans, grabbing Choreography/Show Design each time.
Wheaton North - This is where the prediction tool differs from my interpretation of past results. Historically, WN has placed over MTZ more times than not, but I feel like at this point in the predictions, we start hitting a lot of the fog of where groups can end up. I wouldn't be surprised to see WN move up the list, but I have no justification for assuming they'd place over Brandon.
MTZ - Again, another major hole in my prediction logic. This group has never lost to Brandon. If you use the "compare" tool (shoutout Haakon). However, I have them lower than a group that lost to Brandon last year. My added context answer to this conundrum is that firstly, welcome to show choir, where these things are not as cut and dry as one would think, and also, MTZ could absolutely place as high as 3rd.
Millard Inf - I have Millard Infinity North here, but honestly, I do not know much about them or several other groups that I think could take this spot from them. This is me popping from the hip with a canon and zero expectation of accuracy.
We can't know what will happen until some of these groups hit the ground running with competitions in January. My most straightforward prediction is that we'll all be in for some of the highest-quality show choirs in some time.