Findlay has given up one caption (BC to Marysville)
Homewood has given up one caption (BC to Auburn)
Linn Marr has given up two captions (BV to Valley and Waukee)
In my initial predictions I did weeks ago, I didn't even have Homewood in finals. Now I think they are a definite finalist and probably will place in the top 3 along with the other 2 undefeated groups (Linn-Mar and Findlay). I could see those top 3 finishing in any order, but I still think Linn-Mar has the greatest shot at winning. And don't forget Findlay almost beat Los Alamitos in prelims last year, so they are definitely shooting for that top spot this year.
I would love to see those 4 groups in a competition together this season. All 4 shows are amazing and arguably the top 4 best in the entire South this year. I honestly think the South is the strongest it has ever been in terms of the amount of strong groups overall. Each of those 4 choirs are going to a national competition this year and all of them have a very strong chance of winning each of those competitions, which isn't always the case when Southern groups compete nationally.
In all honesty, Brandon has the hardest path to first at a national contest.
Clinton has to beat WWS and Wheaton North — Clinton should sweep
Homewood has to beat Linn Marr and Findlay (No telling about North Central — always so pesky in late season predictions)
Petal has to beat Zionsville
Brandon has to beat Center Grove (one of the top groups in the country), plus ATSC and Mitchell
After the weekend of Feb 18th, here are the stats across the mixed division.
-No group has placed lower than 4th.
-14 GC's
-4 1RU
-8 2RU
-1 3RU
-11 BV
-10 BC
-6 BB
Here's how I currently have it: quite subject to change lol
GC: Linn Mar(BV, BC)
1RU: Findlay(BB)
2RU: North Central
3RU: Hastings
4RU: Mt. Zion
5RU: Homewood
I predict the top 3 will be close, and that it will go like this:
1. Linn Mar -and only if their vocals are as strong as their choreography. If not, I think they could slip to 3rd.
2. North Central- they are always "late bloomers", and their show should be on-point by late March!
3. Findlay - they are veterans of Show Choir Nationals, very classy, and have excellent vocals.
Then I think it will be a ridiculous mix of the remaining groups that I don't even know how to predict yet. Right now I say:
I’d have to put some of the groups I’ve more recently seen to a score sheet (Oak Mountain and Findlay), but the order I’m starting to settle on for the ones I have seen…
Linn Marr
Homewood
Findlay
Mt. Zion
Oak Mountain
Hastings and North Central in the mix somewhere, but not sure where. Each group has unique strengths and weaknesses, so it’s really tough not only to predict, but also to judge. I had the Nationals score sheet at one point, but I’ve lost that file with changing laptops nearly every year.
1 - North Central (BV)
2 - Linn Marr (BC)
3 - Homewood
4 - Hastings
5 - Findlay
6 - Mt. Zion
Still a lot of contests to go through, plenty of rehearsals for the groups, and a lot of time before this contest. Finalists likely won’t be separated by much. Only seen two full shows (Mt. Zion and Linn Marr), and part of another (Homewood). Predictions subject to almost certain change.
Absolutely stacked. Fun fact: This will be the first time North Central has competed outside of Indiana since 2018 (when they swept this competition btw). I don't really know how to even make predictions since most of these groups haven't competed yet, but I'll do my best:
Mixed:
GC- Linn-Mar "10th Street Edition" (sweep)
1st ru- Findlay "First Edition"
2nd ru- Hastings "Riverside Company"
3rd ru- North Central "Counterpoints"
4th ru- Oak Mountain "Singers"
5th ru- Mt. Zion "Swingsations"
Single-Gender:
GC- Oak Mountain "The Muses" (Choreography)
1st ru- North Central "Descants" (Vocals)
2nd ru- Homewood "Nexus"
I think we’ll have more clarity as the season goes on, but the issue this year is ironically the same issue as 2018. Too many wildcards…
Linn Marr - never leaves Iowa, all contests are in January.
North Central - never leaves Indiana. In 2018, nobody had them above fifth. They swept.
Mt. Zion - not consistent
Oak Mountain - when you take 30 minutes to set up, do a 20 minute show, and take another 10 minutes to breakdown, you get time penalties. And that time penalty works out to -30 points. If you’re not one of the Hollywood choirs or Clinton, you probably need those 30 points to get into finals.
Homewood - very consistent in the South, but is usually either deceptively good or deceptively bad at their national contests. No way of knowing which one it is in any given year, but I think they have trended slightly better than their regional record recently. Nobody had them in finals in 2018, even after they went undefeated. They got third.
Hastings - travels around the Midwest and here quite often, but doesn’t normally place well here comparatively to their regional records
Findlay - same as Hastings and Homewood
I can’t say I agree with everything you’re saying here. What exactly is inconsistent about Mt Zion? They haven’t placed below third at any competition since 2019 when they placed 5th at a competition… in which Center Grove got 4th because Clinton, WWS, and other giants were in attendance.
I think it’s also time to maybe give Iowa a bit more credit. Generally speaking, Linn-Mar and Ankeny Centennial only lose to each other within Iowa, with the latter defeating big groups like Loveland/Glenwood who historically place very well at Nationals. I don’t think that Linn-Mar is guaranteed a sweep here, but I also wouldn’t necessarily consider them a wild-card considering the strength of their shows the last several years.
I agree, Mt. Zion is definitely consistent. You can typically expect them to place top 3 anywhere they go besides super stacked competitions (like Glenwood 2019, Show Choir Nationals this year, etc.) And even though Linn-Mar rarely competes outside of Iowa, it's very clear just from seeing videos of them that they are in the top tier of groups in the nation. Like you said, they may not sweep here but I guarantee they'll place in the top 3.
I think with Mt. Zion, it’s really hard to guess if they’re going to be at the top of the pack (HOA Orlando 2022) or barely hanging on to finals (SCN 2015, Glenwood 2019). When I say they’re not consistent, I mean that you can’t reliably predict which tier of groups they’re going to be with at a national contest. They could be anywhere from 1st to 7th here.
Personally, I see Linn Marr winning this, but it’s hard to say that definitively if they never leave Iowa. That was the situation here with North Central in 2018, and they swept. That’s why I consider them a wildcard — less about their quality, and more about there being no easy way to compare them to Homewood and Oak Mountain, etc.
I agree with the original post. A bunch of wild cards. Linn-Mar (who I love) reminds me a bit of some other excellent Iowa groups who had long winning streaks, but who rarely left the state. (Waukee and Urbandale come to mind). The dynamic of traveling and facing new styles of show choir definitely make them a wild card in my eyes.
That being said, they have my favorite non-California story shows, and I wish them all the best.
For the record- I do believe I predicted that North Central would be Top 3 in 2018. I was very worried about that early group of powerhouses!
Secondly, it’s true that LM has always stayed close to Iowa (except Edgewood 2005) but historically Iowa groups have done well at SCN. I can name several finalists from Iowa.
In the last ten years, Ankeny Centennial is the only group that’s placed in the top three. Kennedy won it in 2012 (haven’t gone much further back because recency). I don’t remember if you had North Central in the top three, but I do remember that SCC as a whole had them predicted fairly low for a group that ended up sweeping the contest. 1-9 were close that year, and with this batch of groups, I expect this year to be similar.
Of note, Hastings got a new director in 2018. They finished 6th at this competition in 2019 (last time here), then switched their choreographer in 2020. They have evolved to a much different style than in years past so will be interested to see how this plays out this year.
I heard someone mention something about Hastings being too much theatrics this year, which confused me because that’s not what I’m used to them being like. Don’t know if I’ll get to see them this year as SCN is a little less predictable with my work schedule.
Yeah I saw that and I wouldn't say it's too much. They do have one song with a narrator & props. the rest of it is strictly singing/dancing. Overall I'd say they're more loose/freewheeling than they used to be.
Show Choir Nationals 2023
